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It's not surprising that most gamblers find it difficult to
beat the closing line when you consider that they are betting
into a very efficient market. Sometimes a bet isn't lost because it
was made on the wrong team but because it was made at the wrong
time.
There are many variables to consider before making a wager and
one of these is line movement. Is there more value found in the
opening or closing line? The obvious answer is that the closing line is
harder to beat, having the benefit of sharp money and the wisdom
of the crowd.
To verify this we analyzed ten years of NFL, NCAA football and NBA data as
well as five years of NCAA basketball data. Are conclusion,
without a doubt there is more value found in
the opening line.
LINE MOVEMENT VERSUS THE OPENING POINT SPREAD
Correctly predicting the direction the line will move and betting the opener
will result in a winning record against the
spread.
NFL 53.03%
NCAA Football 53.71%
NBA 53.54%
NCAA Basketball 53.75%
LINE MOVEMENT VERSUS THE CLOSING POINT SPREAD
By the time many gamblers place their wagers much of the value
has been bet out of the line. Using line movement as the only
predictor and betting the closing line will result in a losing record against the
spread.
NFL 48.78%
NCAA Football 49.26%
NBA 49.86%
NCAA Basketball 49.39%
DECREASING ODDS ON FAVORITES BUT NOT FOR THE NFL
Opening odds on favorites dropped a majority of the time for the NBA, NCAA basketball and NCAA football. This is an indicator
that early and possibly sharp money is betting these opening line favorites. The opposite was
true in the NFL where the data showed opening odds increased on the
favorite and dropped on the underdog.
NFL 47.18%
NCAA Football 52.89%
NBA 55.78%
NCAA Basketball 52.64%
Sports bettors who have been successful against the closing line
should be able to
increase their edge if they bet earlier and seek out sportsbooks
that are slow to move their opening line.
A slight edge can be gained betting favorites early but waiting
until there are better prices on underdogs for the NBA,
NCAA basketball and NCAA football. Conversely
betting NFL underdogs early and favorites late is frequently the right strategy.
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