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Key Numbers and Off Standard Lines
From
Bodog Sportsbook
Football is unique among the major pro sports in terms of how points
are scored. In baseball, hockey and soccer, all scores are valued as
a single point. These sports also tend to have low scores and the
average margin of victory is extremely low so point spreads aren't
used in the same way as they are in football and basketball, and
moneylines are the most common form of betting. Basketball scores
come in increments of 1, 2 or 3, but the high amount of scoring
makes for an even distribution of final scores. As a result,
basketball is perhaps the simplest sport to wager on in terms of
lines offered.
Football gets complicated because the scoring comes in chunks of 3
points (for a field goal) and 7 points (for a converted touchdown).
There is also a small amount of other scoring possibilities with
safeties providing 2 points, missed extra points making a Touchdown
worth only 6 and the two point conversion making 8 a possibility.
Scoring in football tends to take place on average only about eight
times a game so, unlike basketball, the final scores do group around
certain numbers, known as key numbers. The major key numbers are 3
and 7, but 1, 4, 6, 10, 13 and 14 have a high likelihood of being
the final margin of victory as well and are sometimes referred to as
minor key numbers.
If we look at how all these numbers relate to 3 and 7, its easy to
see why they occur frequently. The following chart shows the
frequency of certain final scores for the 2001 NFL season as well as
the relationship of the number to a combination of Touchdowns and
Field Goals:
|
Points |
Percent |
Method |
|
3 |
17.3% |
Field Goal |
|
7 |
9.7% |
Touchdown |
|
10 |
6.9% |
Touchdown + Field Goal |
|
4 |
5.6% |
Touchdown - Field Goal |
|
1 |
4.4% |
Touchdown - 2 Field Goals |
|
6 |
4.4% |
2 Field Goals |
|
14 |
4.4% |
2 Touchdowns |
|
13 |
4.0% |
Touchdown + 2 Field Goals |
There are two ways a sportsbook can avoid the risk of key numbers.
The first way is to know what the closing line will be and to get to
it as soon as possible. The other way to balance action is to alter
the odds associated with the pointspread. Most pointspreads are
offered at standard odds of -110, meaning you must risk $110 to win
$100. (Remember that when sportsbooks move a pointspread, the odds
donít change, as the spreads only affects whether your wager is a
winner or not. Changing the odds, on the other hand, doesn't affect
whether your wager is a winner or not, but instead affects the
payout.) By changing the odds away from the standard of -110, the
House can make the same line more or less attractive to people
looking to place wagers. |