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Reduced Juice: A Secret Revealed
by Mike Boozer
The Math in Practice
A few years ago a bookmaker approached me and offered 25% back
of my net loses at the end of the year. Well, I started
thinking. I don't lose, so what the hell is that to me. So, I
told him I'd play him 20 games a week at a $100 a wager if he
let me lay -.05. The old timer had no idea, but just to save
face he said, "I'll tell you what, I'll let you lay -.06." I
immediately said, "Deal!" So, that year I made at total of 1000
bets risking a total of $106,000 to win $100,000. Over this
eight month period I won 58% of my wagers. Ok, so let's do some
math. I had 580 winners and 420 losers. Translation, I won
$58,000 and lost 420 bet * .06 equaling $(44,520), a net profit
of $13,480 ($58,000 won - $44,520 lost = $ 13,480).
Let's look at the same example using the standard .10 cent
charge. Based on $110/$100 I would have risked an additional $40
per bet $110,000 to win $100,000. Again, I sill win $58,000, but
instead of losing $44,520 at .06 cents, I now lose $46,200 with
the traditional.10 cent fee, a difference of $ 1,680 in profit.
So, instead of pocketing $ 13,480 at .06%, the bankroll is
reduced by $1,680 to $11,800 at .10%. I don't know about you,
but I can buy a nice new pair of shoes with an extra $1,680.
Now let's take a closer look at the book's offer of 25% back on
yearly loses. I say, "Ok, I'm a loser, 25% is fair." For
illustration purposes we'll use 50% as our winning percentage. A
blindfolded monkey could pick 50% winners. Anyway, of 1000
wagers at $110 /$100 we pick 500 winners equaling $50,000 and
500 losers * .10 equaling $55,000. Easy enough, total loses is
$5,000 less my 25% rebate ($5,000 * .25 = $1,250) equals a
season lose of $3,750. So, in this scenario the book maker
profits $3750. What would have happened had I used $106/$100?
Stay with me! Back to reduced juice, 500 losers at $106 equals
$53,000 and 500 winners still equals $50,000. As a result, if a
player picks 50% winners at $106 he'll lose $3,000 as compared
to losing $3,750 with a rebate. That's a $750 savings. Simply
put, reduced juice is like grocery shopping with double coupons.
My point is whenever you can negotiate a reduced juice deal, DO
IT!!! THE NUMBERS REVEAL THE TRUTH.
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